Funda has a follow-up note identifying winners and losers from recent AI safety concerns.
Kioxia said to consider raising $10 billion in US (BBG)
The Tokyo-based memory-storage maker is seeking to gain more liquidity in the US with the listing after it repurchased billions of dollars’ worth of shares in Japan, the people said.
Selling ADRs may also allow Kioxia to join a semiconductor-focused stock index, they said.
Citi: Continual learning in AI will reshape long-term memory demand inspite of memory de-spec and safety concerns
The firm sees a deepening DRAM shortage in 2027–28, with supply-demand ratios of -8.7% and -9.7%. It forecasts global DRAM demand rising 30% and 35% year-over-year, driven by continual learning that lifts server DDR5 and HBM demand at the same time, while supply grows only 19% and 22%. Personal and physical AI emerging from the second half of 2028 should intensify undersupply through 2028.
For NAND, Citi projects demand growth of 29% and 33% outpacing supply growth of 21% and 25%, as producers add DRAM and HBM capacity at NAND’s expense. Continual learning and Nvidia’s KV-cache offloading trend are expected to lift high-density eSSD demand by 53% and 41%, leaving NAND S/D ratios at -6.1% / -5.5% for 27E and 28E, tighter than the -0.8% Citi models for 2026.
Citi projects blended NAND ASP to grow +34%/ +15% in 3Q/4Q26E.
Citi’s memory top picks are Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, Sandisk and Kioxia; its SPE and materials favorites are Montage, Applied Materials, Lam Research, TES, Eugene Tech and TechWing.
Trendforce responds to SA’s Long Live the Short King Piece
SemiAnalysis argues that 4hi is for data-center inference. Decode is bandwidth-bound more than capacity-bound; rack-scale systems already have huge aggregate HBM; frontier-lab ASIC teams are designing around 4hi because it is the lowest cost/token at current HBM prices.
TrendForce argues 4hi is for edge, not the DC. Real inbound interest is autonomous driving and robotics. Mainstream data-center platforms are “relatively low” probability. Near-term volumes from edge are tiny.
While SA argues that 4hi is in part motivated by the constraint on wafers, TrendForce argues that 4hi makes less sense because the scarce input is the foundry logic base die + packaging:
At equivalent wafer capacity, 4hi yields a greater number of stacks, and every stack requires its own base die built on a foundry logic process. Since HBM5 base dies will be manufactured on more advanced process nodes, the constraint shifts to base die and packaging, where capacity is already tight and would prove insufficient. As a result, 4hi HBM is unlikely to provide substantial relief to overall capacity constraints
TrendForce assesses that because advanced logic node capacity is tightly allocated and shifting the same base die capacity to 4hi results in a relatively low HBM output value, HBM suppliers will prioritize allocating resources to mainstream specifications and related customized solutions for data center computing platforms. In the near term, 4hi is likely to remain limited to samples and small-volume custom projects.
MS: Attractive entry points in select upstream bottlenecks
Out last night. MS says AI materials group is up 91% LTM but has corrected 36% since 52-week high. Not all the opportunity is priced in - scope for valuation gap to narrow with more richly valued PCB / CCL peers.
MS prefers high-end glass fabric #1, HVLP4+ copper foil #2, optical fiber #3. Tickers below, as well as an update on Ibiden.
Funda will be stepping up its coverage of upstream companies, so keep a lookout for that.