APAC Wrap: 7 July 2026
Export controls, Kyber, Nittobo, Kingboard, Sumco, Memory, Semicap, Taiwan monthly numbers, and more.
Beijing considering curbing overseas access of China’s top models (RT)
In news that appears positive for sentiment on Anthropic and OAI:
Chinese authorities have held meetings with top tech firms over the past month about potentially restricting overseas access to China’s most advanced AI models, including those yet to be released, three people familiar with the discussions said.
At the meetings, led by China's Ministry of Commerce, participants discussed putting limits on the most advanced AI models — both closed-source and more open versions, according to two of the sources.
Anyone interested in the bureaucracy of AI regulation in China and the United States might find this piece helpful.
Deepseek developing its own inference chip (RT)
DeepSeek’s effort remains at an early stage, with the company reaching out to external partners and holding discussions with chip-design, foundry and memory companies, the three sources said. The effort began about a year ago, one of the people said.
Kyber delay
Funda’s channel checks in early June suggested that the rack architecture for Rubin Ultra is highly likely to continue using Oberon, while Kyber will not be adopted until Feynman.
This was followed by a note from Jefferies in mid-June, noting that the Kyber delay was discussed as early as May and that the firm prefers upstream PCB names to downstream names, citing price hikes driven by industry wide supply tightness:
Nittobo
GS raises FY3/27E–FY3/29E OP forecasts by 2% to 26% and increases 12m TP to ¥4,820.
GS thinks the Street got overly greedy, pricing in a massive 60% cumulative price hike for T-glass and proceeded to sell off when management did not deliver the hikes. The market is also terrified that new glass-core substrates will soon replace T-glass.
GS argues the sell-off is overdone. Industry checks reveal that glass-core adoption in ABF substrates won't happen before 2030 due to unresolved micro-cracking issues.
T-glass demand remains tight, and competitors are struggling with product quality and yields.
GS sees possible catalyst in new capacity expansion plans in FY3/27, which will likely come with a fresh round of ~15% price hikes for FY3/29 to ensure adequate ROI.
I read this as implying that GS don’t see any price hikes until the new capacity is online.
Kingboard
Having last raised prices on 16 June, Kingboard raised prices again yesterday. That is apparently 9 price increases since 2025:
Citi sees the correction as a buying opportunity, lifting its price target from HK$ 120 to HK$130: