Taking Stock of 2025
And "ranking" current ideas.
Dear subscribers,
I have a work in progress list of ideas for 2026. In no particular order:
Naturally, item 7 has left me reeling a little because of Silver’s surge in the last five days. My inbox is also filled with Substack notes about precious metals. Do we now have to read them over the long weekend?
I expressed my bewilderment to a friend who works at a top 10 HF. What’s going on with Silver?
What he said was really helpful:
Its fine to occasionally ride momentum, such as Lumentum to $400 and Micron to $350 (tbc).
Don’t get distracted. Check the YTD returns of the names in your universe.
His favourite idea is up 590% YTD.
In the Chinese power equipment camp, we also have Wasion Holdings and CQME.
Singapore construction has arguably had a better year:
The Japanese semiconductor chokepoints are a mixed picture following a recent pullback. For example:
Finally for completeness, we should acknowledge that Iqbal’s D-Box idea is performing almost as well as my savant HF friend’s pick of Harbin Electric:
Pulling up the YTD numbers was helpful. We should stick to what we are doing and what we know. We benchmark ourselves to SMH (and, for a laugh, SK Hynix) on this newsletter, and by that measure we are on the right track!
With that in mind, we offer an update below on our current ideas and where we have the most conviction. We also flag new optics ideas that our readers have asked us to look into.