Hello,
In case you have not noticed, Funda has opened its chat to all subscribers, paid and free, so I would encourage you to check it out / ask questions before they close some threads for paid subscribers only.
I also opened this newsletter’s chat to everyone this week. This is a summary of the discussion - probably 8/10 on the real time calls made this week.
BE: Project Jupiter Force Majuere Notice (BBG)
I used to work on some of the most difficult energy projects in a major industrial’s portfolio. Covid was a flurry of Force Majuere notices, which we dealt with for many years after the event.
Force Majuere mechanisms in contracts typically require you to issue a notice within a certain amount of time of learning about a relevant event / trigger, otherwise you would not be able to rely on the Force Majuere mechanism at all.
Oracle’s statement below is true, and it is remarkable that they would say it out loud, because it compromises their position if they have to litigate this later. Oracle should be behaving as if there is a genuine uncontrollable event affecting the project instead of saying everything is ok.
META: Investors digest the Funda survey
Having spent last week focused on optics and CIOE, where we spent time explaining the implications for NPO and Semtech’s position in China, I had some time to discuss CPUs this week.
It became clear from discussions over the weekend that there was going to be a continued bid for CPUs, which I flagged in the chat on Monday.
This bid really started from the release of Astra and not, as many on social media victory lapping would have you believe, from Muse. This is because strong computer use capabilities bodes well for CPU demand.
I’ll pause here to note that AT&S (which we’ve been flagging since 13 August) has actually outperformed Intel and AMD in the last 30 days, and that substrates benefit from CPU demand.
Since Funda’s Muse note was published I think investor thinking has developed along these lines: