Substack Log
Whats the ROI of all this time and money spent online?
I keep a list of significant purchases because I find it extends the joy of those things when you read the note a few months later. More utility for the same amount spent.
So why not a list of thing I read this year? In a few months we can look back and assess / relive the value we are getting from independent research on Twitter and Substack. Let’s benchmark to SOXX, which is +9.2% YTD.
We’ll keep this post pinned and update it from time to time.
If you have anything to contribute, please do. I’m also conscious that I have left out folks who called these moves 6 months+ ago, X accounts like SuspendedCap and Evergreen. I guess the purpose of this list is to feature people who are responding really quickly to news or chatter.
30 Dec
AYZ note on ASML calls increased EUV demand. ASML was ~$1060.
STF says CPU shortage looming. Intel ~$37.
CQME (2722.hk) appears to have won a relatively small piece of a recent state tender for transformers. For what feels like the third or fourth time in the quarter, we point out 2722.hk has dipped to HK$1.80s. Now at HK$2.38, a bigger winner YTD than many semicap names.
4 Jan
Irrational Analysis says buy more semicap and that there is a massive logic shortage coming.
5 Jan
NVIDIA CES Keynote
Before CES, a few people told me nothing market moving ever happens at CES.
As it turns out, this was the “context is the new bottleneck” moment that sent Sandisk to the top of the YTD leaderboard. Interestingly, no immediate online reaction to this comment, at least on my radar.
BTH publishes bullish ASML note.
Says “market is massively underestimating TSMC capex” and estimates >50B in ‘26 and 60B in ‘27. This is pretty spot on.
We already picked up more ASML thanks to AYZ so we go ahead with more AMAT ~$280
Shortly after, FundaAI publishes a bullish AMAT note.
Funda AI addresses Google OCS rumour from Taiwan. Lite +10%
InP bottleneck saga in infancy here. AXTI still ~$17 at this stage.
7 Jan
STFU tweets and posts about the GS note on PCB and CCL TAM.
This is the end of the Nittobo dip and it goes up ~45% from here. If we’re keeping score thats more than Intel and semicap.